Crude should trade at $21.

In the late 1990s, oil companies traded on valuations that assumed a long-term oil price around $15 a barrel. The oil price should rise at the rate of global inflation, all other things being equal. Assume it was $15 in 1995. Then today it should be $21. Crude oil traded near $37 a barrel in New York on Tuesday, February 17, 2009.

Hayward says increase refinery capacity now

The challenge for all of us is to not allow this cyclical fall to pitch us into a structural loss in capacity," BP Plc Chief Executive Tony Hayward said. BP operates five U.S. refineries that in aggregate can process 1.54 million barrels of crude a day,